11只阳光私募清盘22只拉警报,七连跌后

新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!

  记者 凌薇

EM Corporate Credits - Turning Neutral

  原标题:人民币中间价上涨逾百点

  大盘在经历近两个月的大跌后,曾经风光无限的私募们遭遇到了较大幅度的折损,越来越多的私募拉响了清盘警报。据不完全统计,今年前五个月共有11只非结构化阳光私募基金(包括新泉1期)遭到清盘。而朝阳永续最新统计显示,目前又有22只阳光私募非结构化产品累计净值低于0.7元,徘徊在清盘红线的边缘。而在结构化产品中,净值跌至0.85元或0.85元以下的产品则同样有13只。

    We entered the year with a constructive view on EM corporate credit.
Then inour last chartpack in March we argued that investors often get
too bogged downwith fund flows for EM, and in the process miss out on
some of other importantfactors that drive it - underlying growth,
commodities, USD, China, rates, etc.

  广州日报讯 (记者周慧)经历七连跌后,昨日人民币兑美元中间价报6.7157,较上一日上调139点,是节后八天以来首次上调,且上调幅度为三周最大。昨日开盘,在岸人民币兑美元随着中间价上涨。市场人士表示,考虑到短期美元指数持续拉升后已录得较大涨幅,短期内进一步上扬的空间或相对有限,人民币汇率未来几个交易日或逐步转入横向盘整。

  22只非结构化产品徘徊清盘红线

    While almost all these factors are still supportive, the performance
so far this yearhas been solid with 30bp tightening and +4.5% total
returns as we write. We takethis opportunity to turn more neutral on EM
corporate credit, expecting the nextquarter to be largely range bound
for spreads and carry being the name of thegame. We think risk/reward
looks largely balanced with fundamentals (low defaultrates) and
technicals strong, but valuations challenging and event risks on
therise. Other key risks in our view are an oil price collapse,
geopolitics, continuationin the recent trend of softer macro data, Fed
balance sheet unwind, etc.

  美元已然见顶

  今年以来,在市场行情的持续调整下,阳光私募的亏损幅度也进一步扩大,遭遇清盘的私募也越来越多。根据相关统计,今年前5个月,共有11只非结构化阳光私募基金(包括新泉1期)遭到清盘,他们分别是山东信托的新东风成长、梦想8号、深蓝1号、以太3号、宝华1号,外贸信托的永圣慧远、新泉1期,新华信托的同威1号,西安信托的鼎弘义1期,北京信托的爱康1号,中融的屹立东方一期。其中5月份就有6只清盘,包括深蓝1号、以太3号、宝华1号、鼎弘义1期、新泉1期、爱康1号和屹立东方一期。

    On Asia credit, we generally remain negative oil and have Sells
there in the IGspace, and are also negative on the property sector in
India & Indonesia. Weprefer defensive credits in India HY. We find value
in some of the high stepupcorporate perps among China HY names. In
sovereigns, we are cautious overallwith Mongolia 2021s representing our
only outright Buy recommendation. Weexpect CEEMEA corporate spread
performance in 3Q17 to remain range bound,but remain constructive on
Turkish banks. As for developments in GCC involvingQatar and Saudi led
alliance, we are optimistic about a diplomatic resolution;but apart from
this, the recent weakening in oil prices is expected to weighon GCC
issuers and CIS oil and gas names in the near term. The risk of
USsanction extensions will weigh on Russian credits. Select real estate,
Quasi utilityand Russia and South Africa based TMT issuers continue to
be our preferredplay within corporate space. We are turning more
cautious on LatAm corporates(and on LatAm energy companies in light of
lower oil prices) and advocate amore defensive allocation into
intermediate-duration (ideally 4 to 9 years), higherrated(ideally ‘BB’
to ‘BBB’), lower-beta and not-too-tight credits (ideally above200bp)
within the region, of which our favorite risk-reward stance is found in
theBrazilian BB-rated and BBB-rated credits in the pulp & paper and
petrochemicalsproducers, as well as large manufacturing and food
companies with a significantinternational presence but no mention to
ongoing corruption investigations. Thekey exception to our filter
described above is our still constructive view on single-B-rated YPF
‘25s and the Argentine provinces of Salta (SALTA ‘24s) and Cordoba(PDCAR
‘24s). See Corporate Credit - EM Chartbook for details.

  人民币“相当有韧性”

  朝阳永续的最新数据显示,截止到6月10日,已经更新净值的阳光私募中,累计净值低于0.7元的非结构化产品共有22只。而在结构化产品(于今年5月、6月更新净值的)中,净值跌至0.85元或0.85元以下的产品则同样有13只。

  瑞银证券特约首席经济学家汪涛认为,最近几周虽然美元兑日元和英镑明显升值,但人民币对CFETS货币篮子仍然比较稳定。10月1日人民币正式入蓝SDR,但境外央行或投资者增持人民币资产的过程会循序渐进,人民币入篮的短期影响较为有限,年内人民币对美元的变动仍将取决于美元对其他主要货币的走势。

  一般来说,结构化产品均设有明确的止损线。据了解,当一般受益权委托人未能及时追加信托资金且信托财产净值在合同存续期间继续下降到信托计划资金的80%或者85%的时候,受托人有权对信托财产中的证券类财产进行强制性平仓操作,平仓操作完成后信托计划亦同时终止。不过根据目前的普遍情况,下降至85%就可以进行平仓操作的情况居多。

  汇丰外汇策略师王菊称,自中间价周一调至弱于6.70的水平以来,人民币一直表现得“相当有韧性”,就目前而言,美元/人民币可能将按部就班地缓慢上行。外汇流出近来已有所缓和。预计随着时间的推移,人民币实际有效汇率的回调在美元弱势的环境下更易实现。

  对于非结构化的产品来说,现在存在着0.7元和0.8元不同的说法,具体情况每个基金在招股说明书中都有不一样的规定,但0.7元则是业内普遍公认的清盘红线。但并不是所有的阳光私募都会设立清盘条款。

  花旗银行认为,美元已然见顶,长期经验来看美元的升值周期一般维持5~6年,意味着本轮从2011年开启的美元升值周期已处于尾端,欧洲央行以及日本央行的货币政策重心已开始从汇率角度转移。

  “三秦股王”阮杰三年垫底

相关文章

Comment ()
评论是一种美德,说点什么吧,否则我会恨你的。。。